YM: Today I am allowed the mighty pleasure of featuring an analytical piece from Mark Sasse—a jack of many trades; master of all—but a man I recognize firstly as an early impetus for my interest in politics and related matters.
Mark W Sasse is a novelist and award-winning playwright who loves to dabble in the frivolity of political speculation when not knee-deep in the creative arts. His new novel The African Connection is book two in his low fantasy thriller series The Forgotten Child Trilogy. In his former life, he taught history and English in both Vietnam and Malaysia. He currently teaches theatre in Saudi Arabia. When he’s not writing or teaching, he’s cooking spicy Asian food or watching baseball. Check out his work onmwsasse.com
Mid-term elections are volatile. Almost always. They historically display the cantankerousness of the American electorate with pristine clarity. Mid-term elections are like the shiny new Christmas toy that finds itself dunked in an April mud puddle simply because you’ve become bored with it. That’s what happens. Two years after a presidential election is just enough time for the euphoria of “change” and “hope” and “greatness” and all other election slogans to wear thin to such a degree that the populace brutally penalizes the president’s party to let the other jokers have their turn messing things up. It’s a cynical cycle without question. The numbers back this up very clearly. Let’s take a look at the data before conjecturing their meaning for 2018.
In what looks to be the most expensive Senate race this election cycle, incumbent Democratic Senator Bill Nelson seeks to retain his seat amidst Class I elections that pit the Democratic Party against the worst Senate map any party has seen in the last half century—facing what looks to be his stiffest electoral competition yet.
The Rhetoric and Play
Nelson’s re-election campaign pivots largely on a combination of appealing to moderates and popularity among the more politically energized youth. As a southern Democrat originally elected in 1978, Nelson has never been very liberal or progressive like many of his Senate colleagues, so the threat of base turnout is very real.
Rather than an attack specifically against Trump and Capitol Hill Republicans, Nelson’s message gives off old-school vibes of “Washington isn’t doing enough”. Through campaigning on a purportedly poor federal reaction to natural disaster and Scott’s poor track record in a state where the environment is a crucial factor, Nelson seems to have covered a bit of ground with the new progressive Democratic base as well as not turning away moderate or otherwise undecided voters.
Speaking of undecided voters, Scott doesn’t seem to be doing very well with them. Though the governor has a massive edge in terms of name recognition among constituents, this may in fact be the decisive factor that acts against a Scott victory. Close affiliation with Trump and unpopular flabbergasts in past years decidedly put off still-undecided voters (yes, they actually do exist in this race). Surmising that this is a notable factor, Scott could counteract this by running to rile up turnout among his conservative base, which seems to be the case in his cautions of the fate of America if a Democratic majority Senate were to come to power.
What You Clicked For
But enough talking. You’ve waited. And here they are. Lone Umbrella’s county outcome prediction maps for the Florida Senate race are complete!Outcomes involved in creating these maps:
2016 Florida Senate election—Murphy vs. Rubio
Rubio won this one with the largest raw vote in Florida history and a margin of eight points.
Opponent Patrick Murphy was a relatively popular and charismatic Democrat, but name recognition put the ball in Rubio’s court—along with his incumbency advantage.
County Prediction Map | Population Adjusted
2012 Florida Senate election—Nelson vs. Mack
Early polls indicated Mack with a lead over incumbent Senator Nelson.
Progression of the race showed a vulnerable Nelson with a three to seven point lead.
Election night showed Nelson very comfortably cruise to a victory by well over a million votes and a margin of 13 points.
2016 Presidential election in Florida—Trump vs. Clinton
2014 Florida gubernatorial election—Scott vs. Crist
A very tight race. Scott won by a mere sixty thousand votes; a margin of less than a percent.
Though a tight margin for an incumbent governor, Crist was a notable opponent well known among Floridians as Republican-turned-Democrat former governor of the state.
MSNBC daytime anchor, Nicolle Wallace, is currently facing massive backlash amid comments on her show Deadline: White House on Friday. The widely publicised debacle took place with a visibly flustered Wallace rhetorically asking how White House reporter Kristen Welker maintained her calm amid calculated pivoting and evasion on the part of White House Press Secretary, Sarah Huckabee Sanders.
As a part of a daily series called Non-Political Politics (NPP), Yusoof Monawvil posts daily maps on the obscure, quirky, and unconventional aspects of the United States’ key political institutions—in an undoubtedly non-political manner
Light green: none of delegation has experience in House |Green: One of delegation has experience in House | Dark green: both of delegation has experience in House
Today’s map takes a look at Senators with experience serving in the lower chamber of Congress—the House of Representatives.
With a total of fifty Senators, exactly half of the Senate has experience in the House. Of this fifty, twenty-six are Republicans, twenty-three are Democrats, and one—Vermont’s Bernie Sanders—is an independent.